Economist François Melese warned in a recent op-ed that President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to address the looming Social Security crisis could accelerate the program’s insolvency. He highlighted that, without proper reform, Social Security’s financial issues could worsen, with the program projected to run out of full funding by 2035.
Currently, nearly 73 million Americans receive some form of Social Security benefits, with almost 56 million of them being aged 65 or older. While Americans have paid into the system for decades, the growing number of retirees and the slower rate of new workers joining the workforce has led to a strain on Social Security’s finances.
Trump has expressed opposition to cutting Social Security or raising the retirement age to collect benefits. Instead, he believes that economic growth, job creation, and a boost in payroll tax revenues will stabilize the program. However, Melese points out that Trump’s proposal to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits and workers’ tips could expedite insolvency, potentially depleting the fund by 2031 and reducing benefits by a third by 2035. This view is supported by a 2024 report from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), which also cautioned that Trump’s other policies, like tariffs and expanding deportations, would exacerbate Social Security’s funding deficits.
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Trump has been vocal about his economic agenda, including tax cuts and a focus on tariffs. On Truth Social, he emphasized plans to eliminate taxes on tips and make up for the revenue loss through tariffs on foreign countries. “Republicans must unite, and quickly deliver these historic victories for the American people,” he wrote.
In his op-ed, Melese proposed merging two major federal disability programs—the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) and the Supplemental Security Income (SSI)—to create a streamlined, more efficient program. By eliminating redundancies, improving fraud detection, and cutting administrative costs, Melese argues, the program could better serve its beneficiaries while allowing for more permanent reforms to Social Security itself.
The issue of Social Security remains contentious in U.S. politics, especially as lawmakers struggle to address the program’s long-term solvency without angering constituents who rely on it. The Republican National Committee (RNC) has stated that the GOP is committed to protecting Social Security and Medicare, with no changes to the retirement age. However, some Republicans, like former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, have suggested that Social Security cuts should be considered, especially as the program faces projections of a 17% benefit reduction by 2035 if no action is taken.
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Despite Trump’s promise to protect Social Security during his first term, it’s unclear what specific measures he will take if the issue becomes more urgent in his second term. The newly signed Social Security Fairness Act, which would increase benefits for certain pension workers and their spouses, could face challenges in implementation under the Trump administration, especially given the chaotic legislative process behind its passage.
Ultimately, while the path forward remains unclear, Melese’s warnings suggest that without careful planning, Trump’s approach could hasten the decline of Social Security, potentially leading to significant cuts to benefits in the near future.
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