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California Monarch Butterfly Population in Crisis, According to Latest Study

California’s annual Western Monarch Count has revealed a dramatic drop in Monarch butterfly numbers this winter, with just 9,119 butterflies observed—marking the second-lowest count since the program’s inception in 1997. This decline follows a period of higher numbers, with over 200,000 butterflies counted each year from 2021 to 2024.

The Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation, which oversees the count, expressed concern over this year’s sharp decrease. The 2020 count saw fewer than 2,000 Monarchs, but the recent decline remains troubling. Emma Pelton, an endangered species biologist with the organization, attributed the drop to environmental factors such as high summer temperatures and drought conditions in the West, which likely hindered the third and fourth breeding generations.

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A notable example of the decline was seen at a Santa Barbara site owned by The Nature Conservancy, which reported 33,000 Monarchs last year but only 198 this winter.

Experts are alarmed by the projections for the Western Monarch butterfly’s future. According to the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, there’s a 95% chance the species could go extinct by 2080, and a proposal is in place to list the butterfly as federally endangered.

While voluntary conservation efforts, such as creating pollinator gardens, have helped prevent even worse outcomes, specialists like Isis Howard, coordinator of the Western Monarch Count, stress the need for more large-scale action. To reverse the population decline, efforts must address broader issues such as pesticide use and climate change, which individual efforts have not been able to counteract.

Lailyah Duncan
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