NASA Raises Alarm Over Rising Risk of ‘City Killer’ Asteroid Hitting Earth

A newly discovered asteroid with the potential to cause massive destruction is drawing increased concern from NASA, as its chances of colliding with Earth in seven years have gone up.

The space agency initially detected the asteroid, 2024 YR4, in December 2024 and estimated that it had only a 1% chance of impacting Earth. However, further observations have altered those odds.

Rising Probability of Impact

On Jan. 27, 2025, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) noted that the asteroid had surpassed the 1% probability threshold, making it one of the most significant objects on the agency’s asteroid risk list.

By Feb. 7, the likelihood of impact increased to 2.3%, and as of Feb. 18, NASA now estimates a 3.1% chance of collision on Dec. 22, 2032—equivalent to odds of 1 in 32.

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Despite this rise, experts caution that there is still a 96.9% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely.

Potential Impact and Monitoring Efforts

Measuring between 130 and 300 feet wide, 2024 YR4 could cause widespread devastation if it were to strike a populated area. Scientists have identified a potential impact corridor stretching across the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.

The asteroid has been classified as Torino Scale 3, meaning it presents a real but uncertain risk—a designation that is rare in asteroid tracking.

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe 2024 YR4 in March 2025 to refine estimates of its size and trajectory.

Astronomers will continue tracking the asteroid through April 2025, but it will become too faint to observe until it reappears around June 2028. Future monitoring will determine whether the impact probability continues to rise or is eventually ruled out.

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Lailyah Duncan

Lailyah Duncan is an insightful writer at The Chieftain Spear, where she explores themes of culture, resilience, and community through compelling storytelling. Passionate about bringing diverse perspectives to light, Lailyah's work reflects a deep commitment to empowering voices and fostering meaningful conversations. With a talent for weaving narrative and purpose, she continues to inspire her readers with thought-provoking articles that celebrate heritage and advocate for positive change.

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