Speculation about potential $5,000 stimulus checks has surfaced, tied to an ambitious cost-cutting effort within the federal government. But before Americans start making plans for an unexpected financial boost, there are key hurdles to consider.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a new initiative aimed at reducing wasteful spending, has a goal of saving $2 trillion. The idea is that a portion of these savings—20%—could be distributed to taxpayers as a so-called “DOGE Dividend.” However, even Elon Musk, a major proponent of efficiency-driven reforms, has expressed skepticism about reaching such savings.
Despite uncertainties, former President Donald Trump acknowledged on Wednesday that his administration is exploring the possibility of giving back part of the savings to Americans. His remarks came a day after Musk suggested he would consult with Trump about the idea.
Where Did the $5,000 Stimulus Idea Originate?
The concept of DOGE-driven stimulus payments gained traction after investor James Fishback, co-founder of Azoria Partners, pitched the idea on social media. On February 14, he proposed that if DOGE successfully trims $2 trillion from federal spending, 20% should be returned to taxpayers in the form of direct payments, with the rest applied to national debt reduction.
“American taxpayers deserve a ‘DOGE Dividend’—a refund of the money saved by cutting government waste,” Fishback posted on X. He argued that such a move would also encourage citizens to report fraud and inefficiencies.
Fishback later elaborated on CNN, suggesting that rewarding taxpayers could create a more engaged public that actively helps reduce government waste.
Would Americans Qualify for These Payments?
If the plan were to move forward, Congress would need to authorize the release of funds. Historically, stimulus payments—such as those issued during the COVID-19 pandemic—were approved through bipartisan legislation.
The 2020 relief package, signed by Trump, provided $1,200 payments to individuals and $2,400 to married couples filing jointly, along with additional funds for dependents. Similar eligibility criteria would likely apply if a DOGE-based payout were to be approved.
Trump’s Take on the DOGE Dividend
During a summit in Miami Beach, Trump said his team is considering allocating 20% of government savings to taxpayers while applying another 20% toward national debt reduction.
Speaking to reporters on Air Force One, Trump added, “I love it. It’s a way to incentivize Americans to help us identify waste, fraud, and abuse in government spending.”
Musk and Congressional Leaders Weigh In
Musk, responding to Fishback’s proposal on X, indicated he would check with Trump about the feasibility of the plan.
Meanwhile, House Speaker Mike Johnson was less enthusiastic. Speaking at the 2025 Conservative Political Action Conference, he downplayed the idea, emphasizing the need for fiscal responsibility.
“It might sound great politically because everyone gets a check,” Johnson said. “But with a $36 trillion national debt, I think we need to focus on paying down the credit card first.”
Economic Experts Sound the Alarm
Many economists warn that issuing $5,000 payments could have unintended consequences. Judge Glock, research director at the Manhattan Institute, told Scripps News that a sudden influx of cash could fuel inflation rather than providing real economic relief.
“If we start distributing large checks to millions of people, consumer spending will spike, potentially worsening inflation,” said Jay Zagorsky, a professor at Boston University.
Some experts, however, argue that returning unspent government funds to taxpayers wouldn’t necessarily drive up inflation. Kevin Hassett, former director of the National Economic Council under Trump, noted that if taxpayers save rather than spend these payments, inflationary pressure would be minimized.
The Bottom Line: Is This Realistic?
Despite the buzz around DOGE-driven stimulus, financial analysts remain skeptical about the federal government achieving the necessary $2 trillion in savings.
Recent reports indicate that while DOGE has identified billions in potential reductions, the actual savings may be far lower than initially estimated. This has led some to call the proposed stimulus checks “unrealistic” and even “misleading.”
“There’s just not enough money there to make a meaningful impact,” said Elaine Kamarck, a governance expert at the Brookings Institution.
For now, the idea remains just that—an idea. Unless Congress approves such payments and DOGE reaches its ambitious savings goal, Americans shouldn’t count on a $5,000 check in the mail anytime soon .
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